Walter Bressert Stock Indices & Futures OnLine: Stock Market Report Update, 8/3/2003
Published 9/22/2003

S&P EXPECTED TO REACH 1050 - 1080 AS 20-WEEK CYCLE TOPS 10/31 - 11/28/2003

a Special Report by Walter Bressert

For the past 20 years our Special Reports on the 4-Year Cycle in the stock market have quite accurately called many 4-year cycle tops and bottoms well before the fundamental picture changed. Our reports are based on cycle analysis and from 1917. A link to a detailed history of the 4-Year Cycle from 1917 appears at the end of this report.

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The Big Picture
The monthly chart shows the recent 4-Year Cycle lows since 1964. The 1974 low was the last 4-Year Cycle bottom to drop below a previous 4-Year Cycle bottom. It was followed by a retracement of 78.6% of the move from the previous 4-Year Cycle high to the 4-Year Cycle bottom in 1974.


The 4-Year Cycle bottom that occurred in 2002 was the first 4-Year Cycle since 1974 to drop below a previous 4-Year Cycle bottom (as indicated by the horizontal red line), and our expectation is for at least a rise to the 50% retracement level at 1161, and quite possibly to the 78.6% retracement of 1365 as the current 4-Year Cycle tops, January through July, 2004.

1974 was the bottom of a 36-Year, 18-Year, and 4-Year Cycle. The next 36-Year Cycle bottom is due in 2011 plus/minus five years; therefore, we might expect the next two 4-Year Cycles to have lower cycle highs and lower cycle lows. But,currently the big picture is that prices are likely to rise higher to at least the 50% retracement level of 1161, and possibly as high as 1365

 

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Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows cycle tops and bottoms generated by the computer. The blue dots show the cycle bottoms and the red dots show the cycle highs; however, the cycle tops and bottoms for current price data are not calculated. We have plotted the blue up arrow below the most recent 20-Week Cycle. The current 20-Week Cycle still has plenty of potential for an upside move.

Current S&P Expectations

Time: The 20-Week Primary Cycle is most likely to top the week of 10/31 through the week of 11/28.

Price: Our analysis indicates the cycle high is most likely to occur in the 1050 - 1080 price range. However, a Friday close above 1080 would signal the beginning of a blow off that could take prices to 1130.

 


 

NOTE: Clicking on the links below will open a new window. Close the window to return to this page.

If you have not already done so, click here to review the time and price analysis on the website that was sent to subscribers of the WB Intraday Review & Forecast on 9/2/2003. Due to technical problems, we did not post a general update. A RealPlayer is required to listen to the audio commentary. If you don't have a RealPlayer, click on the "Viewing Instructions" link that appears in the top panel of the frame pages.

The 4-Year Cycle is the key to understanding and trading the stock market. Please review the previous 4-Year Cycle reports, if you haven't already done so. Click here to view the original Stock Market Report and more recent updates for a more complete picture of the analysis behind these forecasts, especially the 3/24/2003 report.

 

Walter Bressert OnLine

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