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TIME CYCLES: The Interplay of Cycles within Cycles

The key to trading with cycles is an understanding of the interplay of cycles within cycles.

Almost all tarding cycles have a 1/2 trading cycle (see folloiwng illustration). A 20-day (bar) trading cycle has within it two 10-day (bar) cycles. One 10-day cycle begins as the 20-day cycle egins and bottoms halfway into the 20-day cycle. As the first 10-day cycle ends the second 10-day cycle begins, and it ends as the 20-day cycle bottoms. Therefore, a 20-day trading cycle always begins and ends with a 10-day cycle.


 

Right Translation Bull Market

In bull markets showing right translation, the top of the 20-day cycle is most often the top of the second 10-day cycle. Right translation shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading cycle. On average the move from bottom to top will be three weeks, and the move from top to bottom, one week. Knowing this makes it easier to hold a long position through the decline into the bottom of the first 10-day cycle, or even add on to the long position, expecting to take profits as the second 10-day cycle tops, often with a mechanical sell signal.

   

 

Left Translation Bear Market

In a bear market with left translation the top of the 20-day cycle is most often made as the first 10-day cycle tops. Left translation shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading cycle. On average the move from bottom to top will be one week, and the move from top to bottom, three weeks. Knowing this can give you the confidence to hold a short position through the rise into the high of the second 10-day cycle, or add on to the short position expecting to take profits as the 20-day and 10-day cycles bottom with a mechanical buy signal.

Cycles are the only technical tools that allow for reasonably accurate forecasting of future tops and bottoms. The cycles used in our analysis are as long as 4 years for the Stock Market, and as short-term as minutes or ticks for intraday trading.

Next: Walter Bressert's ProfitTrader™ Timing Bands